1) Write a summary of the key points presented by the author;

2) Express your thoughts on the topic

Summary should be no longer than 3 typewritten, double-spaced pages.

Most social scientists who study public opinion and public policy in democratic countries agree that (1) public opinion influences public policy; (2) the more salient an issue to the public, the stronger the rela- tionship is likely to be; and (3) the relationship is threatened by the power of interest organizations,’ political parties, and economic elites (see, e.g., Aldrich 1995; Dahl 1989; Mueller 1999; Stimson, MacKuen, and Erikson 1995; Page and Shapiro 1983; Smith 2000). There would be much less consensus, however, on the answers to five follow-up questions widely seen as impor- tant but seldom addressed directly: 1. How much impact does public opinion have on public policy? 2. How much does the impact of opinion on policy increase as the importance of an issue to the public increases? 3. To what extent do interest groups, social movement organizations, political parties, and elites influence policy even when opposed by public opinion? 4. Has government responsiveness to public opinion changed over time? 5. How generalizable are our findings about the impact of opinion on policy?

This article distills considerable research directed at these questions. It is not, however, a literature review in the usual sense. Rather than summarizing publications in a con- ventional narrative, I use each publication as a source of data, tabulating the issues and countries studied, and the authors’ predictions, variables, and findings. The analysis will provide the publications’ collective answer to each question, and, at times, show how little evidence is avail- able. Highlighting how little we know on some issues will point to an agenda for future research. It turns out that public opinion influences policy most of the time, often strongly Responsiveness appears to increase with salience, and public opinion matters even in the face of activities by interest organizations, political par- ties, and political and economic elites. Claims that respon- siveness is changing over time or varies across issues rest on very little evidence. The next section describes issues that arise in attempts to answer the questions. This is followed by a description of the data, presentation of findings, and conclusion.

ISSUES AND CONTROVERSIES The Impact of Public Opinion on Public Policy No one believes that public opinion always determines public policy; few believe it never does. Even dedicated pro- ponents of democratic theory acknowledge that democratic governments sometimes ignore the public (e.g., Page and Shapiro 1983: 189); those whose theories attribute little power to the public concede that governments sometimes follow public opinion (e.g., Block 1987: 66; Domhoff 1998: 301; Korpi 1989: 313). What distinguishes those who believe democracy gives citizens genuine control over their government from those who believe it does not, is thus dis- agreement over matters of degree: how much impact does public opinion have on public policy? This disagreement is an old one, and one might think it had been resolved, or at least narrowed substantially. 1 The term “interest organization” encompasses both interest groups and social movement organizations; for the rationale for treating them together, see Burstein 1998a. NOTE: I would like to thank William Domhoff, Kim Quaile Hill, Lawrence Jacobs, Florence Katz, and Alan Monroe for helpful advice and comments. This study was partially supported by NSF grant SES-0001509. Political Research Quarterly, Vol. 56, No. 1 (March 2003): pp. 29-40 29 This content downloaded from 99.172.120.36 on Wed, 08 Sep 2021 15:44:35 UTC All use subject to htt 30 POLITICAL RESEARCH QUARTERLY But this is not the case. Indeed, it may be argued that the range of predictions about impact based on democratic theory has widened in the past 20 years, not narrowed, and that researchers are no closer to consensus now than they were then. A good place to begin is Page and Shapiro’s (1983) clas- sic article, “Effects of Opinion on Policy.” They begin con- ventionally, delineating theoretical controversies about the impact of opinion on policy: some theories (particularly economists’ on electoral competition) predict “a high degree of responsiveness” (175), while others (notably those attributing great power to interest groups) predict much less. Their empirical conclusions are presented in a conven- tional way as well: on the one hand, the evidence supports one side (“opinion changes are important causes of policy change” [189]), but, on the other hand, problems in the research require make them hesitate to accept their own conclusion-it would be “unwise to draw normative con- clusions about the extent of democratic responsiveness in policymaking” (ibid).

What has happened in the 20 years since the publica- tion of “Effects of Opinion on Policy”? Theoretically, those expecting responsiveness to be low have generally held fast to their ideas, but the paths of those initially identified with the high responsiveness view have diverged. Some (e.g., Stimson, Mackuen, and Erikson 1995) still argue that democracy works much as it is supposed to, with public officials consistently responding to shifts in public opinion. Others have come to claim, however, that the complexity of modern politics makes responsiveness problematic. Demo- cratic inst